In my opinion, where drones really shine is in reconnaissance and as forward observation for artillery. While strapping a mortar to it and flying it into targets seems to be crude but effective, I think it has a lot to do with the age and era of the targets being hit so I agree it's unwise to proclaim the death of tanks... except of course the ones littering the fields of Ukraine
From my understanding, NATO troops are trained with certain assumptions about air support and air superiority that don't seem as feasible in the war in Ukraine. It appears that achieving any form of air superiority there has been a huge challenge for both Ukraine and Russia.
Countering drones is a cat and mouse game. I keep watching Position/Navigation/Timing R&D with interest. Development of onboard navigational autonomy in addition to PNT that is not rooted in a GNSS would be an interesting step. We’re not there yet, though.
Western maneuver warfare as you describe it and as we were taught in the Canadian Forces doesn't work very well, it seems, in an environment of persistent, "Eye of Sauron-type" ISR, and contested airspace. NATO has never engaged a foe without air superiority and ground attack forces to act as a crutch, and that is a large part of why every Western-planned Ukrainian counter-attack stumbles right out of the gate, it seems.
Air superiority seems to be the key to combined arms operations, and Ukraine doesn't have it, so it has substituted waves of drones instead, as has Russia.
If the Ukrainians had more fighter-bombers they could drive the Russians back.
I see reports there are so many drones up there now that it's often impossible for soldiers to distinguish friendly from unfriendly drones, so they just kill or jam them all, which seems wasteful, but an understandable reaction.
I'm really surprised Ukraine and it's allies haven't planned a combined arms invasion of Crimea, starting with the destruction of the Kursk bridges and rail line, but maybe they just can't control the skies yet to protect the invading ground troops.
BTW your British video doesn't seem to be available any more.
I have to wonder if the CAF would've done any better than Ukr in the 2023 Zaporhizia offensive (specifically the initial assaults). Unless we assume air superiority, I think that case would've been no. They tried to breach obstacles to a depth that we just don't really expect to deal with. & got schwacked by attack helicopters (couldn't push up SHORAD far enough to support leading elements as I understand it) & arty when the tanks & mechanised infantry were canalized by the obstacles.
Loss of the AEVs was a critical part of that debacle... & we'd have thebexact same issue if we lost a couple AEVs during the breaching ops.
As for the defensive ops... Yeah, our doctrine is very different, & much more mobile. But would we make similar adaptations without air cover & after taking losses? Maybe? Also... How much if the dogged defense of terrain (& people) is a political decision? We are fine trading space for time fighting in Eastern Europe... But Latvia might have a different perspective on that.
I don't k ow why you imagine that Russia hasn't adapted tactics and clings to Soviet dogma. BTGs are no longer a thing, individual motorcycles are. Mass wave attacks are not a thing, drip-by-drip infiltrations are. Tanks as a massed force, also no longer a thing, rather employed piece-meal for specific pinpoint attacks, and so on..robotics, glide bombs, ISR...Russia isn't doing what I've read about in those old Soviet Motor Rifle Division manuals I was given in the army. What they DO clling to is a dogged defence in depth.
In my opinion, where drones really shine is in reconnaissance and as forward observation for artillery. While strapping a mortar to it and flying it into targets seems to be crude but effective, I think it has a lot to do with the age and era of the targets being hit so I agree it's unwise to proclaim the death of tanks... except of course the ones littering the fields of Ukraine
Russia has lost thousands of tanks in Ukraine.
I’d love to see an analysis of which systems killed them. Unfortunately, we’ll never see one.
Drones have plenty of uses - as part of the wider effort you point to.
https://roguesystemsrecon.substack.com/p/drone-war-evolution-in-ukraine
From my understanding, NATO troops are trained with certain assumptions about air support and air superiority that don't seem as feasible in the war in Ukraine. It appears that achieving any form of air superiority there has been a huge challenge for both Ukraine and Russia.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/02/air-defense-shapes-warfighting-in-ukraine.html
Countering drones is a cat and mouse game. I keep watching Position/Navigation/Timing R&D with interest. Development of onboard navigational autonomy in addition to PNT that is not rooted in a GNSS would be an interesting step. We’re not there yet, though.
Biggest takeaways I’ve had so far are that:
A) Absolutely still need boots on the ground.
B) Drones are terrifying, yes, but for every kill we see on media, they’re probably burning through dozens of the fuckin things.
C) Artillery and ordnance are still king. Whoever can get boom boom on target quickly will likely get the upper hand in that scenario.
D) Stepmate Creatheists, tanks still aren’t dead, shocking , I know… 🙄
Tanks are being equipped with relatively simple drone shoot-down tech. As well as the “cage” for passive defence.
Western maneuver warfare as you describe it and as we were taught in the Canadian Forces doesn't work very well, it seems, in an environment of persistent, "Eye of Sauron-type" ISR, and contested airspace. NATO has never engaged a foe without air superiority and ground attack forces to act as a crutch, and that is a large part of why every Western-planned Ukrainian counter-attack stumbles right out of the gate, it seems.
Air superiority seems to be the key to combined arms operations, and Ukraine doesn't have it, so it has substituted waves of drones instead, as has Russia.
If the Ukrainians had more fighter-bombers they could drive the Russians back.
I see reports there are so many drones up there now that it's often impossible for soldiers to distinguish friendly from unfriendly drones, so they just kill or jam them all, which seems wasteful, but an understandable reaction.
I'm really surprised Ukraine and it's allies haven't planned a combined arms invasion of Crimea, starting with the destruction of the Kursk bridges and rail line, but maybe they just can't control the skies yet to protect the invading ground troops.
BTW your British video doesn't seem to be available any more.
I have to wonder if the CAF would've done any better than Ukr in the 2023 Zaporhizia offensive (specifically the initial assaults). Unless we assume air superiority, I think that case would've been no. They tried to breach obstacles to a depth that we just don't really expect to deal with. & got schwacked by attack helicopters (couldn't push up SHORAD far enough to support leading elements as I understand it) & arty when the tanks & mechanised infantry were canalized by the obstacles.
Loss of the AEVs was a critical part of that debacle... & we'd have thebexact same issue if we lost a couple AEVs during the breaching ops.
As for the defensive ops... Yeah, our doctrine is very different, & much more mobile. But would we make similar adaptations without air cover & after taking losses? Maybe? Also... How much if the dogged defense of terrain (& people) is a political decision? We are fine trading space for time fighting in Eastern Europe... But Latvia might have a different perspective on that.
I don't k ow why you imagine that Russia hasn't adapted tactics and clings to Soviet dogma. BTGs are no longer a thing, individual motorcycles are. Mass wave attacks are not a thing, drip-by-drip infiltrations are. Tanks as a massed force, also no longer a thing, rather employed piece-meal for specific pinpoint attacks, and so on..robotics, glide bombs, ISR...Russia isn't doing what I've read about in those old Soviet Motor Rifle Division manuals I was given in the army. What they DO clling to is a dogged defence in depth.