22 Comments
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LadyHistorian's avatar

Vova needs recall that Ruzzian missiles and/or rockets have demonstrated an uncanny tendency to boomerang. Just saying.

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Mission's avatar

In other words, Putin is puffing his chest in hopes those that are ignorant of the facts will ask for Ukraine to step down or force Biden’s position?

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Black Cloud Six's avatar

Essentially, yes, that’s what I think. As I said, I actually think this is aimed at bolstering Trump’s anti-Ukraine position.

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Mission's avatar

Agreed.

Have you written about the strange relationships the Trump admin has with Russia? Musk since, at least, 2022. Trump since the 80s? I’d like to hear your thoughts on what the game plan is between Russia and Trump.

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Black Cloud Six's avatar

I’d have to do more research to write intelligently about it. I do suspect (without evidence) that the Steele dossier was accurate.

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SandraB's avatar

Black Cloud Six, I hope you don't mind my providing a link to the Wiki write up on the Steele dossier. I hadn't heard of it before. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steele_dossier

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Black Cloud Six's avatar

Not a problem at all. I read it all the way through when it came out. Most people failed to recognize it for what it was: raw unprocessed intelligence. Oftentimes, such intelligence can’t be corroborated by other sources and has to be read cautiously. But it makes sense in this case.

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Clifford R Krieger's avatar

I find it interesting that Russia thinks Russia should be a sanctuary. I did also find it interesting that at this point President Biden decided to take off constraints. Was there new intelligence? Does President Biden hope to force an early truce, before his Administration ends? It does seem an unstable situation.

Regards — Cliff

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Jstroke's avatar

Did it even hit anything?

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Black Cloud Six's avatar

Not that I’ve seen (and I’m always open to new information). As I said, these unguided reentry vehicles are quite inaccurate. The lack of precision accuracy doesn’t matter with a nuclear weapon, but conventionally it means they can’t do much unless by happenstance.

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Goatah's avatar

I honestly think the reason we are seeing this now is because it’s the first time they could actually launch a functional missile, especially after the Sarmats(or whatevs) “launch failure.” Also this is like, eh I dunno, 70:30 a joke…

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Brad Satoris's avatar

How exactly do you see Ukraine winning this conflict? Seems the best they can hope for is a frozen conflict.

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Black Cloud Six's avatar

Right now, they’re trapped in attritional warfare. I’ve argued repeatedly that they need to restore mobility to the battlefield. This is what they’ve done in Kursk and Russia has paid a very heavy price because of it.

Frankly, I think the Russians could collapse economically. They cannot sustain this for long. They’ve been relying on old war reserves of equipment and these are being destroyed far, far faster than they can be replaced. Inflation is getting out of control and the ruble has collapsed.

If - and it’s a big if - Western support can be sustained and Ukraine can restore a combination of battlefield mobility with deep strike, I think Ukraine stands a good chance of ejecting the Russians from their territory and then taking a defensive stance. Russia could then be left to clean up their domestic mess - if they can.

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ABossy's avatar

Some pundits have speculated that the potential of a Russian economical collapse has been another reason for Biden's hesitancy.

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Brad Satoris's avatar

Is it really on the verge of collapse? By all accounts the major cities are thriving. Trade is unimpeded w China and India. Outside of the big cities I don’t know, but Russia has always been a country of a few islands of modernity.

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John Boyd's avatar

The vitality of the Russian military (and by extension, the Russian economy and will to fight) certainly has to be called in to question when they turn to North Korea from assistance on the battlefield, no?

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ABossy's avatar

I don't know. I wish everything bad for Putin, and any leverage the west has should be used. Of course all this may be moot. Not many people studying the situation expect wisdom from the incoming gang of idiots.

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Brad Satoris's avatar

You nailed it on the head: there are few Russia experts in the west. But we know from history that Russian leaders have always effectively used the “motherland” propaganda. There doesn’t appear to be much domestic dissent in Russia. It’s a bad situation, but the past generation of Russia experts foresaw this, Kennan et al

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Brad Satoris's avatar

I hope you’re right. I don’t know the battlefield situation, but wars of attrition depend on manpower and artillery. Russia has an almost 4x advantage in manpower, and has a domestic arms industry. I just don’t see how this gets anything but worse for Ukraine. I hope I’m wrong.

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Black Cloud Six's avatar

The industrial capacity isn’t nearly keeping up with Russian losses on the battlefield. They’ve kept going because they’ve had literally thousands of pieces of equipment in storage. Those stocks are being eaten up fast and can’t possibly be replaced in the same numbers. Russia has lost access to much of the high tech parts needed to make modern weapons and some systems are literally irreplaceable.

They’re using human wave tactics and are literally throwing troops into a holocaust. Their casualties are absolutely incredible.

It’s really not sustainable. They’re 1000 days into what was supposed to be a three day operation.

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SandraB's avatar

I am friends with a retired Russian engineer here in Canada. He's a recent immigrant. He keeps in touch with his former workmates in Russia. These people are still drinking the Putin Kool-Aid. They believe the threat is NATO. Average citizens are now making simple drones in available shopping centres.

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ABossy's avatar

I know they won't use Russian citizens, otherwise they risk civil revolt. I thought they had an unlimited supply from all the 'stan satellites, but maybe not.

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