Make Alberta Great Again?

Trumpism in the West, the myth of separation, and the risk to Canada’s national security

I was desperately trying to avoid this, but I feel the need to write about Alberta. After all, the threat of separation is a threat to Canada’s national security, so remains slightly “in bounds” of my original intent for this newsletter. Moreover, as I’ve explained a few times, I write as a cathartic experience and as a way to formulate my thoughts — and I have a lot of thoughts about Danielle Smith and Alberta.¹

Personal Roots, Political Divide
But first a confession. I was born and spent my youngest years in small-town Alberta. My entire family hails from there, and many still live and work in small communities across the north of the province. My grandfather and five uncles worked in the oil patch; my mother and father are from farming families. I was posted to Alberta three times, the last time for a (much too) extended period. I know the province and its attitudes like the back of my hand.

Alberta’s grievance politics have existed as long as I can remember. My father, forty years after leaving the province, still cannot speak the name “Trudeau” without spitting venom. It goes without saying that family who have remained in Alberta have an even stronger reaction, if that’s possible. The hatred — and it is hatred — runs very deep.

Pierre Trudeau was resented long before the National Energy Program. He was seen as an effete Eastern elite. A draft dodger. A Communist (Trudeau’s sympathy for Castro didn’t help). He favoured Quebec, and Quebec got everything — including bilingualism. It was unending. Admittedly, there were grains of truth in what was said, but what was conveniently forgotten was the fact that Alberta was growing incredibly wealthy, even under the dastardly Eastern Liberals. If Alberta didn’t have a seat at the table, it was certainly eating very well.

From Alienation to Outrage
And so it continued, amped up by the National Energy Program and an increasing difference in political outlook between Alberta and the rest of Canada. Rural Alberta drifted further and further right and fostered fringe separatist movements dating back to Doug Christie in the 1980s. And then, in 2015, Canada elected a Liberal government — and, worst of all, a Trudeau as Prime Minister.

Justin Trudeau didn’t stand a chance in Alberta. His last name alone sparked hatred, and his very progressive politics inflamed the sense of alienation. Personality-wise and professionally, he was regarded as the antithesis of an Alberta farmer or oil patch worker: a teacher from an elite Eastern family from Québec, pampered, a silver spoon baby who’d never had a “real job.” Socks and vapidity. And now this Trudeau was talking of increased environmental restrictions on the oil patch, of a move to electric vehicles, and of the death of the oil industry entirely.

So it’s a new round of grievances. And like any widespread set of grievances, there’s a kernel of truth. The Trudeau government did indeed introduce environmental regulations that directly impacted the oil and gas industry, and the fabled “northern energy corridor” floundered on a sea of environmental concerns and Indigenous opposition. If the Feds weren’t out to actually kill the industry, they certainly weren’t interested in expanding it. No matter that Ottawa literally bought a pipeline to support Alberta, the grievances festered, given more horsepower by Facebook groups and politically motivated climate change denial and right-wing activists.

The Trump Effect and the MAGA Pipeline
In such an environment, the entry of Donald Trump and MAGA is a toxic addition. Canada, as we know, is awash in US media, and Trump’s influence began as soon as he entered the scene. After all, he appeared to be the opposite of Trudeau: politically incorrect, opposed to “globalism,” “wokism,” and a vehement supporter of the oil and gas industry. Talk in Medicine Hat, Olds, Viking, and around the table of the lodges in Ft. Mac became grounded in right-wing politics and conspiratorial thinking. It’s no coincidence that the far-right “Yellow Vest” movement and the so-called “Trucker’s Convoy” had their origins in Alberta. Never mind that the Alberta economy was booming and that high school dropouts were able to buy $110,000+ Ford F-250 Harley Davidson trucks — the sense of grievance exploded.

Premier or Governor?
Now we have Trump 2.0, and Alberta politics have swung even further to the right. Danielle Smith, the Premier, and her party have made no secret of their sympathy for Trumpism, glad-handing with the likes of Tucker Carlson, Ben Shapiro, and Trump himself. Meanwhile, the federal government has become the enemy and the source of all evils. If only Alberta had more sovereignty, it would be much better off. Part of this, of course, is a cynical ploy to appeal to the UCP’s rural base, as is the tabling of various items of performative (but hardly substantive) legislation.

But part of it is real. Smith appears to see herself as akin to the Governor of a U.S. state, with similar powers. Worse, the province has become increasingly beholden to the oil and gas industry, to the point where provincial policy is in lockstep with the industry’s agenda. Attempts to pivot or diversify the economy appear to have been slowed to a crawl. Moreover, the sovereignty Smith demands seems to be almost entirely for the benefit of the oil and gas industries, as the additional power could be used to create policies in support of their interests.

Separation Fantasies vs. Reality
Now we have a significant threat to Canadian sovereignty from Trump 2.0 — one described by many observers, including me, as an existential threat. Trump has openly and repeatedly threatened to annex Canada to the U.S., using economic coercion to do so. This has galvanized most Canadians to support the country (if not the government) and to address the threat from Trump head-on. Except in Alberta, where the grievances have been mythologized and amplified by far-right social media.

As should be expected in a movement that, in its modern guise, originated with the Convoy, the current grievances and suggested solutions have little basis in reality. Instead, they rely on twisted interpretations of how Canada works and on wishful thinking. Albertans are told that equalization is a “rip-off” and that their money is being siphoned off to support those dastardly Quebecers. A “Republic of Alberta,” we’re told, would have unfettered access to the Pacific Ocean through a mythical “corridor” that Canada would somehow be forced to create. Oil and gas would provide endless wealth, and Alberta would finally stride proudly amongst the nations of the world.

Never mind that the writing is on the wall for the oil and gas industry. It isn’t going away in the next decade — or two. But the world is slowly moving on, realising the devastation that continued use of fossil fuels causes. Even without this, an independent Alberta would be a single-product economy, subject to the whims of the world market, dependent on Canada (or the U.S.) to engage that market, and dependent on a product that the world wants to move away from.

Never mind too, that the Indigenous community across the province is vehemently opposed to any move toward separation and any attempt to abrogate their treaty rights. Rightfully, the community views the treaties guaranteeing their rights as a sacred trust with the Crown — the Crown of Canada — not something to be waved away or dismissed with a shrug.

The Real Risk of Legitimising Extremes
Of course, none of this matters to the far-right ideologues driving the Alberta separatist movement. Awash in U.S. MAGA propaganda, it’s “drill baby drill,” and every man for himself. The environment means nothing, nor do the treaty rights of Indigenous peoples. An independent Alberta would be a MAGA-inspired petrostate, and woe betide anyone opposing the vision. My guess is that the current U.S. slide into authoritarianism and oligarchy would be mirrored very quickly in Alberta — and that Alberta wouldn’t survive very long as an independent country. Instead, once the cowboy hat–toting lawyers in Calgary realise their little project isn’t viable, annexation would be the only option.

Normally, I’d dismiss all of this as fringe nonsense not worth dignifying. But Danielle Smith has given it legitimacy and amplified their views at the precise time Canada is facing an existential threat from the United States. There is little doubt that her ideology is aligned with Trump’s — and her sympathies lie accordingly.

We already see the U.S. right egging on Alberta separatism, and the issue has been further legitimised in the U.S. press. That MAGA is sympathetic to the separatists is beyond doubt. Whether that sympathy has translated into financial support is still in question. Another question is how much influence Russian disinformation campaigns (akin to those that supported the Texas independence movement) are having on this issue. At the moment, it’s impossible to tell.

A Crisis of Unity
What we can say is that this issue — grounded in mythology, grievance politics, and far-right ideology — isn’t going away. Perhaps separatism would have remained with the fringe and as talk around the tables in Ft. Mac, but Danielle Smith has stoked the fires and bears a significant amount of responsibility for where we are now. Her reasons for doing so almost don’t matter. What matters is that she’s willing to risk the future of the country to satisfy her base and the industry that supports her.

1. I was inspired to write today by an article about Alberta sovereignty in the New York Times of all places. Alberta Stands Apart in Canada. Now it Plans a Long-Shot Bid to Secede