From Trudeau Fatigue to Trump Chaos

2025 Is Gonna Be a Wild Ride

My Apologies for My Absence

I needed to take a step back over the holidays, reset my thinking a bit, and gain some perspective on recent events. After all, a deep breath does one some good sometimes.

My basic thinking hasn’t changed: Trump is a fascist and is an existential threat to Canadian national security; Trudeau is ill-equipped to deal with him and lacks the gravitas necessary to represent Canadian interests—he needs to go; Canadians are generally disinterested in national security and in a sovereign defence capability, and don’t get me started on Maple MAGA.

With this in mind, and with all the usual caveats about my often being wrong, I thought I’d take a stab at guessing what might happen in the first few months of 2025.

Canadian Politics

Trudeau is finished—if only he’d realize it. Commentators are coming up with all sorts of reasons, but I suspect it’s simply fatigue from the electorate. “Sunny Ways™” have long since ceased to be an effective political message, and Trudeau’s near singular focus on social justice issues to the exclusion of the economy, crime, immigration, and national security is beginning to cost him dearly. Worse—and there’s nothing he can do about this—Canadians tend to toss governments out at about the ten-year mark.

The Conservatives are, of course, foaming at the mouth for an election. Never mind that they really haven’t articulated any policies beyond childish name-calling, a weird focus on “anti-wokeism” to peel support away from the People’s Party, and stoking hatred of Trudeau. While I’m not one of those who thinks that the Conservatives are MAGA-lite, I am concerned by the complete lack of seriousness and the influence of some far-right elements of the party.

On the defence file, we’re certainly not seeing any urgency despite its increased profile. The Liberals have made some decent procurement decisions for the Air Force and Navy, but the Army seems to have been left hanging, with many programs punted far into the next decade. Timelines are far, far too long across the board. Moreover, I’m not seeing much (if any) progress on the major structural changes necessary to address the completely broken procurement system, recruiting, and, just as importantly, retention.

A change in government is very unlikely to improve this situation. A new Conservative government will be almost entirely focused on the economy and on reducing the deficit. This means cuts, and the largest source of discretionary spending is defence. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative Party leader, has hedged on meeting NATO’s two per cent of GDP spending target and has instead concentrated on nonsense like “reducing wokeness” and “restoring a warrior culture.” I am anticipating defence cuts in the first Conservative budget, which will be camouflaged as an effort to reduce bureaucracy, and a focus on petty issues like dress and haircuts.

US Politics

I tend to stay away from US domestic issues and instead focus on the impact of American policy on Canada and internationally. However, Trump is due to take power in two weeks, and his impact has the potential to be cataclysmic. First, Trump is very likely to impose his promised tariffs, no matter how many grovelling trips Canadian politicians take to Mar-a-Lago. He’s announced it far too often to back down and now owes it to his base, no matter how stupid the idea is in practice.

Second, he’s almost certain to follow through on at least part of his immigration crackdown. Again, Trump made immigration a central theme in his campaign and has to deliver. What that will look like in practice is anyone’s guess.

Both these issues place Trump in direct opposition to the South African-born tech oligarchs who poured money into his campaign. The tech bros rely on both free trade and access to cheap(er) trained immigrant labour. Elon Musk has extensive business ties to China and isn’t likely to take a threat to those interests lightly. The cracks are already starting to show in the oligarch/MAGA alliance, and I suspect there’ll be a breach in a few months. I also suspect that Trump will gravitate naturally to the oligarch view, as he sees himself as one of them and understands their interests. After all, he has no real need for MAGA now that he’s been elected for the final time. It will be a purer form of fascism this time around.

Ukraine

As anticipated, the presence of North Korean troops has made very little difference to the overall strategic or tactical situation, which remains in stalemate and mired in positional warfare. This is very unlikely to change, even if the West continues its support at current levels.

Russia is burning through armour at an unprecedented rate and is highly unlikely to be capable of addressing this through new construction or repair. This means that the only way of sustainment is to draw from old Soviet stocks. Even these stocks aren’t inexhaustible, and we may start to see cracks in Russian ground forces as early as the fall, no matter what happens on the battlefield. The old stock armour will be obsolete and extremely vulnerable to Ukrainian countermeasures, which will further increase attrition. This will force Russia into increasingly dangerous dismounted and “human wave” operations, which might provide Ukraine with an opportunity to restore manoeuvre to the battlefield.

All of this is, of course, predicated on continued NATO and Western support, something that isn’t guaranteed. While we can have confidence that the Nordic countries, the UK, Canada (incredibly), the Baltic republics, and some Eastern European nations will continue their levels of support, the same can’t be said for others.

The big question is, as always, Trump. American support has obviously been critical to continuing Ukraine resistance, and many systems cannot be replicated from other sources. That the Biden administration has thought it necessary to surge support before Trump is sworn in indicates that there may be a significant problem on the near horizon.

If Trump cuts support to Ukraine in support of “peace” (which translates into support for Putin), the massive attrition Russia is suffering is almost certain to taper off. This will extend the stalemate and dramatically reduce Ukraine’s ability to transition to manoeuvre warfare should the occasion arise. Moreover, it is probable that Trump will reinstate past restrictions on Ukraine’s use of weapons against Russia proper, eliminating Ukraine’s deep-strike capability.

There’s no easy solution to a lack of US support. Many Western countries dismantled their defence infrastructure at the end of the Cold War and are in the midst of rebuilding it (and their own armed forces). This will continue to take time. Similarly, Ukraine is rapidly developing its own domestic defence production capability, but this will also take time. Until these are fully operational, American assistance will remain critical. Unfortunately, it will also be unreliable.

Final Thoughts

There are, of course, many other issues upon which to pontificate. The Middle East in particular remains a powder keg and is extremely dynamic, as is the situation in the South China Sea and elsewhere. However, I’ve long maintained a policy of limiting my comments on the Middle East on social media because of the lack of nuance and outright abuse they attract—from all sides. And, frankly, I haven’t been paying as much attention to events in Asia as I should, so it’s better to refrain from commenting.

The next year is almost certain to be turbulent, especially with the agent of chaos about to occupy the White House driving many events. For Canada, it will take serious, decisive, and unifying leadership to address these challenges. Alas, I fear we will not have it.

宁为太平犬，不做乱世人
“Better to be a dog in a peaceful time than a man in a chaotic period.”