Beautifully stated “Black Cloud Six”. Last year at this time I was in so much angst about the Hamas-Israel war. It seems small potatoes now, compared to what is presently occurring in our Western Democracies. Are you communicating this to our political leaders? I will be borrowing some of your words in a letter writing campaign. It’s the best I can do. Frankly, I’m scared sh**less.
I am glad I discovered your SubStack. I don't know much about defence spending and have learned a lot from reading your articles. One thing I learned from Mark Carney is that 80% of the money we currently spend on military equipment goes to American companies. Carney says he plans on changing that while also increasing our NATO spending so that the money stays in Canada.
It’s a nice thought, but as I wrote a while ago, Canada *deliberately* trashed its defence production capabilities decades ago. We have no choice but to buy foreign- at least for the short to mid-term. Carney is exactly right, though - the military has a clear preference for US equipment, largely because we’ve been so tied to them. However, there are other sources for almost everything.
Thank you for restating the coldness of the US approach so clearly. Not that it counts much I do reply on xitter and bluesky to European leadership posts that Canada wants in. We are starting to see direct and authentic replies from European leaders to US positions that skip the diplomatic double talk. The whole concept of trade or border security is so last week. It is about being at a crossroads that Canada and Europe must forge their own destinies. With defense and offense that is credible, consistent, and coordinated. When sovereignty and rule of law is at stake, people will deal with economic turbulence. What good is money in a prison? I am pumped and it seems that many others, including the 72 million Americans that didn't vote for Trump are as well. Let's tap into that and leave the past behind.
Justin Trudeau has been actively engaging with European leaders. Recently, (this past week) Trudeau met with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and other European Union leaders in Brussels to discuss trade relations, security ties, and other geopolitical issues. These meetings are part of Canada's efforts to strengthen transatlantic cooperation, especially in light of the ongoing U.S. tariff threats.
I’m not “certain” of anything in the current political climate. The fact that Trudeau and other leaders are meeting outside of, or without the US, tells me that they are aware of the dire situation and are planning accordingly.
While a lot of people dislike Trudeau, they almost always underestimate him. They’re not meeting with Rutte to discuss the price of tea in China.
The trans mountain pipeline has already begun shipping to Asia and there have been talks to increase the volume. The UK, EU, Japan, China, and South Korea have indicated they will begin importing additional resources from Canada.
I am sorry Canada was not invited to Macron’s EU meeting. We need to start getting more involved there, being a little pushy, but, more importantly, looking at buying defensive equipment there would help. Sweden, France and, even the UK are feasible. We need a leader who is clear minded that what was long touted as the “world’s longest undefended border” is no longer. Canada is buying equipment to defend it; from EU.
I agree with every point you are making. I have recently started watching Australian debates as well; they, too, have tied their military fate and defence production to the U.S. and just delivered a tidy sum as a down payment on their new subs. If the spheres of influence cum colonial ideology cum protection racket approach prevails, they will be left to fight for themselves eventually.
We’re also a party to the TPP I believe and the Feds have been leaning into APAC more recently from a foreign policy perspective. It feels like the foundation for global engagement is in place. We’ve just been taking the easy way out in terms of focussing on the US. Time to move on.
Black Cloud Six, your analysis seems very logical and encouraging and I always look forward to receiving your writings. What can people like me, a seventy-three year old retiree, do to become constructively involved in a positive way? How can we help to reshape Canada?
Thank you for your in depth analysis of our current situation here in Canada. The anxiety is so very exhausting yet here you are speaking in terms even I (70-ish) can understand without going cross eyed. I have grandchildren and fear for them - not for me or my adult children. I’m no pacifist but neither am I a rah rah off-to-war-we-go type of person. People ask me how I’m doing and I tell them I’m sharpening my garden tools - just in case. I have often thought a couple of years of mandatory national service would certainly work toward improving our overall defence as a country. Perhaps the young people would even find the military to be an excellent career choice. No doubt there are those reading this are rolling their eyes at such a thought. Many countries require national service though I do believe it would be a non starter for Canada. Just a few thoughts from an anxious grandmother.
It's incredible how often that Vice Idiot can put both feet in his mouth without blinking. Ron Howard … get your money back from this fool; he is a total “hillbilly” fraud.
We began to (seriously) incinerate our defence production and our Forces in 1970. The small but professional Regular Force from 1948 to 1970 was given a double smack by Unification (Pearson/Hellyer) in 1968 and then by Trudeau with minor improvements under Mulroney and Harper. The reason why Europe has not hopped to our assistance in the current Trumpian era is that we look and act to them as if we are Americans. Some of this is hard to shed but we also willingly took on much of their culture as it seems now to our detriment. Many Yanks I have known always ask why we ended up independent of them and then correctly, pointed how dependent we are on them. One of the ways of proving sovereignty is one’s armed forces. The other is pride in nation. If you deliver a long standing set of punches to the former (since 1970) and have a PM (JT) who through his own inexperience and narcissism delivers a blow to national pride by saying we are guilty of so many wrongs and, oh, by the way, we are also the world’s first “post national state” and another by-the way, a PM who trashes our ability to react economically by having the largest deficits, largest debts and largest number of newcomers (whose numbers strain education, health, housing capacities) — we lose the ability to react to the current existential crisis.
Except by strutting around booing Yanks at hockey games (while losing same) and suddenly flourishing red/white things everything to make us feel better.
It’s time for a major wake up call. Hope it’s not too late.
All parties share blame for the situation we’re in defence-wise. It’s because successive governments have regarded defence as a waste, have been completely uninterested in defence and national security and have treated the armed forces with either benign neglect or active contempt.
We need to get serious and that means dropping the “but Trudeau” narrative.
Under Harper, Canada’s contribution to our NATO commitment was reduced to an abysmal 0.9%. According to the latest NATO communique our contribution is now more than double 1.86% up from 1.37% last year.
Harper slashed veterans services, closing and selling off DVA offices while veterans suffered.
He gutted the RAF by an astonishing 5% even as our members were redeployed again and again in Afghanistan. Imagine gutting $1 billion out of a measly $20 billion budget even as we were at war!!!
By 2015 our navy’s LAST destroyer had so many maintenance problems it sat essentially abandoned at port in Halifax & don’t even get me started on our Hercules. Members died under Harper’s cuts.
And the shameful F-35’s fiasco that was untendered sole-source, and when it became a headache instead of just owning the cost the Harper government sat on it leaving our members trying to maintain 40 year old CF-18’s for another decade.
I have MANY criticisms of the Liberal government’s underfunding and utter disregard for our Northern defence (outposts not updated since 1980’s, failing infrastructure and worse) but I’m not a partisan hack willing to spew lies to paint either party as holding the high ground.
Harper sold out our service members and weakened our country and Trudeau treated our defense spending as an afterthought.
Harper hugely re-equipped the Army and the RCAF for the Afghan role when he assumed PM job. You well know there were many new pieces of equipment acquired under emergency votes. However you are correct about what he did afterwards when we left Afghanistan. He forgot about deterrence. As did several other PMs.
I am not speaking bull about when the destruction of DND started. I and many thousands of others watched it happen in 1970. That year was the beginning of the major issues for our previously reasonably financed Armed Forces. We have never recovered from that.
Telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth about our past does not "deliver a blow to national pride" unless one prefers denialism over realism. It is false pride if one only trumpets the good things and deliberately ignores the bad things. Why not just shorten your comment to "Liberals bad, Conservatives good?" At this juncture, it is perplexing that you take the Liberal government to task for, somehow, having some role in the rise of the fascist authoritarian administration in the US. It took a looooong time for the CPC to figure out how it might "respond" to that threat, given that much of its voting base feels more secure when a strongman who holds "conservative" views has unrestrained power and ensures only their views and values count. And now the CPC has a slogan "Canada First," which is literally a copy of Trump's (and previous would-be US authoritarians) "America First." What a way to broadcast the similarities between the CPC and MAGA. And if the CPC thinks that its "pick me, pick me!" appeasement of Trump and co. will save Canada, they have a lot to learn about bullies throughout history.
I hope the Trudeau or Carney government will move fast on these changes knowing the stereotypical Canadian work culture is to be laidback and allegedly acts without a strong sense of urgency.
"Doesn't want to join the military." Are you devoid of knowledge regarding reasons why people would choose to not join the military? There are lots and lots of them, visible in the number of active military members and veterans with CPTSD, suicidal ideation, substance abuse, and any other number of dangerous and horrible outcomes in active service and afterward. There are of course good outcomes and experiences in the military as well, but ignoring the full reality of it, including the negative, is dishonest.
Beautifully stated “Black Cloud Six”. Last year at this time I was in so much angst about the Hamas-Israel war. It seems small potatoes now, compared to what is presently occurring in our Western Democracies. Are you communicating this to our political leaders? I will be borrowing some of your words in a letter writing campaign. It’s the best I can do. Frankly, I’m scared sh**less.
I am glad I discovered your SubStack. I don't know much about defence spending and have learned a lot from reading your articles. One thing I learned from Mark Carney is that 80% of the money we currently spend on military equipment goes to American companies. Carney says he plans on changing that while also increasing our NATO spending so that the money stays in Canada.
It’s a nice thought, but as I wrote a while ago, Canada *deliberately* trashed its defence production capabilities decades ago. We have no choice but to buy foreign- at least for the short to mid-term. Carney is exactly right, though - the military has a clear preference for US equipment, largely because we’ve been so tied to them. However, there are other sources for almost everything.
Time to look ro Sweden and France, the UK. Stop relying on “south of the border”.
Thank you for restating the coldness of the US approach so clearly. Not that it counts much I do reply on xitter and bluesky to European leadership posts that Canada wants in. We are starting to see direct and authentic replies from European leaders to US positions that skip the diplomatic double talk. The whole concept of trade or border security is so last week. It is about being at a crossroads that Canada and Europe must forge their own destinies. With defense and offense that is credible, consistent, and coordinated. When sovereignty and rule of law is at stake, people will deal with economic turbulence. What good is money in a prison? I am pumped and it seems that many others, including the 72 million Americans that didn't vote for Trump are as well. Let's tap into that and leave the past behind.
Justin Trudeau has been actively engaging with European leaders. Recently, (this past week) Trudeau met with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and other European Union leaders in Brussels to discuss trade relations, security ties, and other geopolitical issues. These meetings are part of Canada's efforts to strengthen transatlantic cooperation, especially in light of the ongoing U.S. tariff threats.
Are you certain that “Canada’s efforts” will mean more than additional hot air? I’m getting pretty tired of this phrase.
I’m not “certain” of anything in the current political climate. The fact that Trudeau and other leaders are meeting outside of, or without the US, tells me that they are aware of the dire situation and are planning accordingly.
While a lot of people dislike Trudeau, they almost always underestimate him. They’re not meeting with Rutte to discuss the price of tea in China.
The trans mountain pipeline has already begun shipping to Asia and there have been talks to increase the volume. The UK, EU, Japan, China, and South Korea have indicated they will begin importing additional resources from Canada.
Europe, not the USA, must decide the future of Europe.
The USA under Trump is now an unreliable ally and irrelevant.
NATO without the USA is the future.
Europe must send in the military to liberate Ukraine.
I am sorry Canada was not invited to Macron’s EU meeting. We need to start getting more involved there, being a little pushy, but, more importantly, looking at buying defensive equipment there would help. Sweden, France and, even the UK are feasible. We need a leader who is clear minded that what was long touted as the “world’s longest undefended border” is no longer. Canada is buying equipment to defend it; from EU.
I agree with every point you are making. I have recently started watching Australian debates as well; they, too, have tied their military fate and defence production to the U.S. and just delivered a tidy sum as a down payment on their new subs. If the spheres of influence cum colonial ideology cum protection racket approach prevails, they will be left to fight for themselves eventually.
great post, thanks for good analysis and reflections
Love it! I completely agree.
This is not a reply if I buy McCain in uk am I buying from Canada or supporting a Canadian company
Canadian :)
Concur 100%with your position. Would like to point out there is a free trade agreement in place with EU https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/ceta-aecg/index.aspx?lang=eng. For rhe UK we have a continuity agreement and are expanding to cover services and digital trade. https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/canada_uk_fta-ale_canada_ru/index.aspx?lang=eng
Thanks for this Ann, I appreciate it. I’m not exactly an economist and my researcher cats obviously fell down on the job.
Good to know.
We’re also a party to the TPP I believe and the Feds have been leaning into APAC more recently from a foreign policy perspective. It feels like the foundation for global engagement is in place. We’ve just been taking the easy way out in terms of focussing on the US. Time to move on.
Black Cloud Six, your analysis seems very logical and encouraging and I always look forward to receiving your writings. What can people like me, a seventy-three year old retiree, do to become constructively involved in a positive way? How can we help to reshape Canada?
Thank you for your in depth analysis of our current situation here in Canada. The anxiety is so very exhausting yet here you are speaking in terms even I (70-ish) can understand without going cross eyed. I have grandchildren and fear for them - not for me or my adult children. I’m no pacifist but neither am I a rah rah off-to-war-we-go type of person. People ask me how I’m doing and I tell them I’m sharpening my garden tools - just in case. I have often thought a couple of years of mandatory national service would certainly work toward improving our overall defence as a country. Perhaps the young people would even find the military to be an excellent career choice. No doubt there are those reading this are rolling their eyes at such a thought. Many countries require national service though I do believe it would be a non starter for Canada. Just a few thoughts from an anxious grandmother.
It's incredible how often that Vice Idiot can put both feet in his mouth without blinking. Ron Howard … get your money back from this fool; he is a total “hillbilly” fraud.
We began to (seriously) incinerate our defence production and our Forces in 1970. The small but professional Regular Force from 1948 to 1970 was given a double smack by Unification (Pearson/Hellyer) in 1968 and then by Trudeau with minor improvements under Mulroney and Harper. The reason why Europe has not hopped to our assistance in the current Trumpian era is that we look and act to them as if we are Americans. Some of this is hard to shed but we also willingly took on much of their culture as it seems now to our detriment. Many Yanks I have known always ask why we ended up independent of them and then correctly, pointed how dependent we are on them. One of the ways of proving sovereignty is one’s armed forces. The other is pride in nation. If you deliver a long standing set of punches to the former (since 1970) and have a PM (JT) who through his own inexperience and narcissism delivers a blow to national pride by saying we are guilty of so many wrongs and, oh, by the way, we are also the world’s first “post national state” and another by-the way, a PM who trashes our ability to react economically by having the largest deficits, largest debts and largest number of newcomers (whose numbers strain education, health, housing capacities) — we lose the ability to react to the current existential crisis.
Except by strutting around booing Yanks at hockey games (while losing same) and suddenly flourishing red/white things everything to make us feel better.
It’s time for a major wake up call. Hope it’s not too late.
I was going to let this one slide because others have covered the major points. I discussed the sordid history of Canadian defence policy here:
https://blackcloudsix.substack.com/p/hollowed-out?r=4bboz2
All parties share blame for the situation we’re in defence-wise. It’s because successive governments have regarded defence as a waste, have been completely uninterested in defence and national security and have treated the armed forces with either benign neglect or active contempt.
We need to get serious and that means dropping the “but Trudeau” narrative.
What a bunch of bull.
Under Harper, Canada’s contribution to our NATO commitment was reduced to an abysmal 0.9%. According to the latest NATO communique our contribution is now more than double 1.86% up from 1.37% last year.
Harper slashed veterans services, closing and selling off DVA offices while veterans suffered.
He gutted the RAF by an astonishing 5% even as our members were redeployed again and again in Afghanistan. Imagine gutting $1 billion out of a measly $20 billion budget even as we were at war!!!
By 2015 our navy’s LAST destroyer had so many maintenance problems it sat essentially abandoned at port in Halifax & don’t even get me started on our Hercules. Members died under Harper’s cuts.
And the shameful F-35’s fiasco that was untendered sole-source, and when it became a headache instead of just owning the cost the Harper government sat on it leaving our members trying to maintain 40 year old CF-18’s for another decade.
I have MANY criticisms of the Liberal government’s underfunding and utter disregard for our Northern defence (outposts not updated since 1980’s, failing infrastructure and worse) but I’m not a partisan hack willing to spew lies to paint either party as holding the high ground.
Harper sold out our service members and weakened our country and Trudeau treated our defense spending as an afterthought.
Harper hugely re-equipped the Army and the RCAF for the Afghan role when he assumed PM job. You well know there were many new pieces of equipment acquired under emergency votes. However you are correct about what he did afterwards when we left Afghanistan. He forgot about deterrence. As did several other PMs.
I am not speaking bull about when the destruction of DND started. I and many thousands of others watched it happen in 1970. That year was the beginning of the major issues for our previously reasonably financed Armed Forces. We have never recovered from that.
Telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth about our past does not "deliver a blow to national pride" unless one prefers denialism over realism. It is false pride if one only trumpets the good things and deliberately ignores the bad things. Why not just shorten your comment to "Liberals bad, Conservatives good?" At this juncture, it is perplexing that you take the Liberal government to task for, somehow, having some role in the rise of the fascist authoritarian administration in the US. It took a looooong time for the CPC to figure out how it might "respond" to that threat, given that much of its voting base feels more secure when a strongman who holds "conservative" views has unrestrained power and ensures only their views and values count. And now the CPC has a slogan "Canada First," which is literally a copy of Trump's (and previous would-be US authoritarians) "America First." What a way to broadcast the similarities between the CPC and MAGA. And if the CPC thinks that its "pick me, pick me!" appeasement of Trump and co. will save Canada, they have a lot to learn about bullies throughout history.
I hope the Trudeau or Carney government will move fast on these changes knowing the stereotypical Canadian work culture is to be laidback and allegedly acts without a strong sense of urgency.
And doesn't want to join the military.
"Doesn't want to join the military." Are you devoid of knowledge regarding reasons why people would choose to not join the military? There are lots and lots of them, visible in the number of active military members and veterans with CPTSD, suicidal ideation, substance abuse, and any other number of dangerous and horrible outcomes in active service and afterward. There are of course good outcomes and experiences in the military as well, but ignoring the full reality of it, including the negative, is dishonest.
Defence is important seeing how blindsided the Canadian elites were when the US went rogue