Our North, Strong and Free? The Hollow Reality Behind Canada’s Defence Policy
I actually liked the Spring 2024 defence policy statement, Our North, Strong and Free, when I first read it. It seemed to say all the right things and committed to equipment the Armed Forces have sought for years—if not decades. Submarines, airborne early warning systems, land-strike missiles, and more; it was all there.
But then I looked at the numbers and realized it was largely hollow. To be fair, the Liberals have made several significant decisions: River-class frigates, North Warning System upgrades, the F-35 purchase, a new transport/tanker aircraft, and new maritime patrol aircraft, as well as upgrades for major equipment. The government deserves credit for getting these initiatives on the rails and into the implementation phase, albeit with delays or very extended timelines in many cases. But these projects all predate the new policy statement. The new capabilities—the shiny promises garnering the most attention—aren’t even funded for years, not until well into the 2030s.
Then enter Donald Trump and his increasingly disturbing administration. Trump cares nothing for Canada, Canadians, or Canadian interests, and we’re about to have an isolationist and chauvinistic nation on our borders. You’d think that this would spur some action, some rapid decisions to reassure our allies and secure our interests. But alas, no.
Delayed Projects and Deferred Capabilities
A look at the timelines shows delays across a host of critical projects:
Recruiting system improvements: By 2032 (!)
Submarines: Still “exploring options”
Airborne early warning: Trickled funding until at least 2030
Worldwide satellite communications (for sovereign capability): Same delay
Tactical helicopters: Same delay
Northern support hubs: Same delay
Northern satellite ground stations: Same delay
Maritime sensors: Same delay
Artillery replacement: Unfunded
Armour replacement: Unfunded
Air defence: Delayed, with a limited quantity for Latvia
Anti-tank systems: Delayed, with a limited quantity for Latvia
Long-range sea- and air-launched missiles: Unfunded
Despite a volatile international environment, the government has chosen to defer major capability acquisitions, including those essential for maintaining our sovereignty, particularly in the North. Many of these announced projects have timelines extending well past 2035 and seem more aspirational than actionable. I have virtually no faith that a project to procure submarines will actually bear fruit. Canada's slow progress on sovereign capabilities (like satellite systems for communication and surveillance) and long-range strike abilities (such as missiles) reveals an inertia inconsistent with rising tensions on the world stage. It’s disturbing to think that basic equipment, which is in service with most of our allies—including smaller ones—can’t be procured here in a timely fashion.
Systemic Issues and Political Will
Part of this delay is systemic. I’ve written at length about our dysfunctional procurement system and its seeming inability to deliver in a timely and efficient manner. But much of this delay appears deliberate. For years, I’ve argued that Canadians don’t prioritize defence, even when faced with multiple challenges. Successive governments have regarded defence as a waste or a necessary evil, with just enough attention paid to satisfy allies. Within the Liberal Party, some view defence spending as “militaristic,” while Conservatives tend to employ the military as a political prop. There is no true defence constituency in Canada, and funding the CAF doesn’t yield votes. After all, the Conservatives haven’t committed to any increase, nor have they released a concrete defence plan.
Currently, Canada spends 1.39% of GDP on defence—far from NATO’s 2% target. The increases outlined in the defence update would bring this to 1.76% by 2030. To actually reach the 2% target would require an approximate 50% budget increase. Realistically, such a massive increase couldn’t be absorbed by our calcified system, but surely there are measures we could expedite now, without delay or dithering. We need to send a message internationally that we are a reliable ally and partner.
The Path Forward
Defence must become a priority, and its profile needs to be raised—today, not a decade from now. It’s time for a shift: Canada needs a defence strategy that protects not only its sovereignty but also its international credibility. But I fear this won’t happen and that our new “friends” in Washington may increasingly see us as a liability. After all, Trump isn’t known for his patience or his capacity for nuance.
Honestly I thought much the same thing when I read the policy update. Given the way the political winds are blowing, any commitment by the present government to spend money past October 2025 is a promise they can easily make because they know they won’t have to keep it while in Opposition.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - what Canada needs above all else is a political consensus that defence is important, and that the CAF cannot be used as a political football. If we can get the major parties to agree on a set of priorities and how to achieve them, then that will go a long way towards having a defence policy and a procurement program that actually works.
Canadian Defence and also National security will only be a political priority for either the cons or libs when the voters deem it important. For decades the typical Canadian voter has not given much attention to this. The question is, how can this attitude change sooner before it’s too late???
Note: External pressure from the US/Nato to date has not been that effective. However, That may change in the near future, but that may open also up the possibility of political games being played with our sovereignty