Disentangling From America
So What Do We Do Now?
Ottawa seems almost ridiculously broken, with the governing party in disarray and the official opposition engaging in juvenile name-calling and outright lying. There are some exceptions, of course, and I was very gratified to read Erin O’Toole’s gracious letter to Anita Anand. It was exactly the type of politics we need now; unfortunately, it didn’t go over well with the MAGA-lite crowd.
Despite this, it appears that it will be politics as usual in Ottawa, with the Leader of the Opposition droning on about the carbon tax and calling potential Liberal leadership candidates names. Meanwhile, we have a quisling in our midst in the form of Danielle Smith, who, assisted by Mr. Wonderful himself, Kevin O’Leary, scurried to Mar-a-Lago to genuflect at the feet of the fascist-in-chief.
There’s no plan to deal with an existential threat, so I’m going to make a few suggestions. In keeping with my areas of interest, I’ll largely confine myself to defence and national security, though I may occasionally drift; apologies in advance to any real experts.
Disentangling From America
Canada entangled itself with the United States as a deliberate policy. In the 1960s and 70s, we rushed to shed our “colonial” connections with the UK, somehow deciding that US hegemony was better than even a tenuous link with London. Besides, having things integrated with the US is easy and cheap. Defence capability can be discarded, and we can rely on the Americans because they’re our “best friends”—until they’re not. In almost every sphere, we have surrendered sovereign capability because it was convenient.
I think of this every time I enter a US preclearance centre at a Canadian airport. In the name of convenience, we’ve surrendered a small piece of sovereignty to the US, complete with armed border guards and a smiling photo of the current US president. To me, it’s an affront. Yes, it’s convenient for some, but it also allows the US to keep any “evil foreigners” at arm’s length: they can deny entry even before someone sets foot on US soil, transferring the problem right into Canada’s lap. And don’t get me started about the guns.
I cite preclearance because it’s a great example of how we’ve deliberately traded sovereignty for ease and economy. We’re lazy, and allowing the Americans to take over is simple and appears to solve problems.
So What?
There are things we can do. I’ve argued many times for a direct, decisive response to Trump’s threats. We need to be serious and plan for a future where we’re not reliant on the US for the basics of sovereignty. This will take effort and will cost money. We need to be prepared to spend it.
With this introduction—and in no particular order—Canada should:
Economics
Immediately adopt the Conservatives’ plan for increased ties with the UK, Australia, and New Zealand, including a free trade zone and freedom of movement.
Pursue an agreement with the European Union, potentially leading to associate status.
Undertake measures to immediately remove interprovincial trade barriers.
Institute sweeping countervailing tariffs the instant US tariffs are announced.
Encourage a Buy Canadian campaign. Perhaps a lower GST rate for Canadian-produced goods.
If things continue to get nasty, consider restricting energy supplies to the US.
Defence and Foreign Affairs
Increase defence cooperation with France.
Accelerate implementation of last year’s Liberal defence plan.
Pursue, with urgency, acquisition of new submarines. French or British nuclear boats would be ideal (although British boats contain some US technology), but this remains politically untenable.
Resolve current manning shortages as the top defence priority. Consider retention bonuses, recruiting bonuses, a streamlined recruiting process, vastly increased publicity that accurately reflects military service, and significant improvements to quality of life.
Diversify procurement away from the United States for major systems, where practical.
For systems purchased from the US, ensure a sufficient stock of spare parts and armaments to operate without US support for extended periods.
Develop and deploy a completely sovereign surveillance capability in the Arctic.
Develop and deploy a sovereign satellite communications network.
Ensure the Canadian military voice communications system can operate without US interference.
Deploy a Canadian Eyes Only and a CANUKAUSNZ classified computer network. Undertake strategic intelligence collection and analysis without US participation.
Increase our ability to produce ammunition of all natures.
Establish a real Arctic naval base, not just an austere facility.
While remaining in NORAD, ensure we can continue to task air defence assets without US knowledge or interference.
Bring all Regular Force units to 100% of their authorized establishments. Authorize Reserve units to do the same, with appropriate funding.
Create a wartime-like “fast track” procurement system that allows for swift purchases and delivery of essential equipment.
Consider a second source of fighter aircraft to increase fleet numbers and improve operational flexibility.
Develop and practice the use of austere, dispersed facilities within Canada.
Remove American military personnel from exchange positions, especially those with national security implications.
Let’s Go!
There’s obviously much, much more, but an all-inclusive list would fill many pages. Furthermore, these are just ideas, some of which may be off-base; I haven’t said much on economics, for instance, because it’s not an area where I have significant knowledge.
However, as has become my mantra, we urgently need to do something on the economic, diplomatic, and national security fronts. Disentangling ourselves from an unreliable and potentially hostile US is an enormous undertaking, one that will require resolve, imagination, and money. Childish party politics need to stop. It’s not time to dither and cringe behind a vacuous policy of grovelling and appeasement.
Let’s go!
What? Something better than Alert? Enter into coordination agreements with Greenland-Denmark. Focus on developing trade within the TPP and with the EU. Use our abundant natural resources to augment our own interests and have no hesitation to demonstrate it to the US. We need to get a little prickly to force some respect, develop much greater self-reliance.
At the top of my list would be engagement with the Nordic countries both in terms of arctic security, but also to deepen trade ties. Edit - and I would add Japan to the list of critical engagements. Why? Because the Nordic countries don’t need our energy, but Japan does, and they have a blue water navy, something Canada now badly and urgently needs. There’s a nice fit here, an energy for military equipment exchange.
The difficulty in the end is twofold though:
1) are Canadians willing to suffer the economic pain that a pivot away from the US will require? Because this can’t be done without significant financial burden and permanent increased costs.
2) are Canadians and decision-makers willing to sacrifice investments in social programs and divert them to military expenditures? Because we can’t do both.
Finally, and most importantly, the existential crisis we face today will require a reinvigoration of the relationship between the fed & prov govts as well as with Canadian citizens writ large. A prerequisite for success is open, honest, transparent and accountable governance, all of which we are currently lacking in spades in this country.
It’s a very tall order for a country that’s been sleepwalking through the post-war Bretton Woods era. As Mike Tyson has presciently said, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Whatcha’ gonna do about it Canada?