A Rebel Alliance? How Canada and Europe Are Moving On

You may remember that I write as a cathartic experience and as a way to organize my thoughts. In doing so, I hope others get something out of it. So, I ask readers to forgive me in advance for this piece—it’s likely to be a bit disorganized, reflecting the absolute chaos of the past few days.

It’s hard to avoid the elephant in the room: Trump’s torrent of lies, obfuscation, and personal grievances that made up his speech to Congress last night. Aside from a bizarre focus on culture war claptrap, Trump saw fit to pontificate on the usefulness of punitive tariffs and to overtly threaten Panama and Greenland (and, by extension, Denmark), punctuating the latter with a sly wink at the cameras as the potential use of force came up. Lost in the muck was another one of Trump’s bright ideas: a “Golden Dome” of missile defence covering the entire United States. That the U.S. has yet to field a truly successful strategic missile interceptor is, of course, lost on him.

The whole scene reminded me of Star Wars (the movie, not the Reagan-era defence project) and the Galactic Empire, with Trump bearing an uncanny resemblance to Emperor Palpatine. Canada, thankfully, has chosen to join the Rebel Alliance, despite the presence of a Death Star looming over the country. I was genuinely proud of Prime Minister Trudeau yesterday as he spoke for the country. He was—finally—direct and forceful, addressing Trump as an equal, likely to the annoyance of the egomaniac in Washington.

It appears things are moving quickly to cement the Alliance, and there seem to be many things we are not privy to. French President Macron delivered a powerful address to the French nation earlier today, calling for a dramatically increased defence posture, including the potential extension of the French nuclear umbrella over the rest of Europe. Further, tomorrow, France and Britain are likely to present a peace plan for Ukraine. These are extremely bold moves but fit well within long-term French foreign policy objectives.

The British aren’t in as clear a position. As I describe in Britain’s Faustian Bargain, a pillar of British foreign policy is maintaining the “special relationship” with the U.S. Another pillar is keeping the U.S. engaged in Europe, with the UK seeing itself as the bridge that makes that happen. Trump is upending all of this, and the British will be eager to flatter, mollify, and bribe him to keep him onside. If this weren’t complicated enough, Trump is directly threatening Canada—a core Commonwealth Realm and another country with which the UK has a “special relationship.”

The British will attempt to thread the needle. Publicly, they’ll flatter and bribe an egocentric Trump to keep him engaged. This will mean appealing to his vanity and involving him in the Ukraine peace process. It also means saying very little in public about Trump’s self-generated war with Canada—for now.

But there are signs that things may not be as they seem. In a scrum in Vancouver, Foreign Minister Joly casually mentioned “intelligence sharing” when discussing her talks with her British counterparts. During his trip to London, Trudeau met with both the British Prime Minister and, privately, the King. Yesterday, the King was seen prominently wearing his Canadian decorations while touring an aircraft carrier. (For those not following, Queen Elizabeth routinely used jewellery to send messages on topics she couldn’t comment on publicly.)¹

I may be guilty of wishful thinking, but I hope these small signs—along with Canada’s more public participation in critical meetings with European leaders—signal a significant shift in Canadian policy: one away from the U.S. and towards Europe and our other allies. Canada would do well to make a more dramatic and public commitment to Europe, perhaps on the defence side. There are several things we might do now and later. For now, though, it’s best to await events.

For now, though, Canada—like Ukraine—still has the Death Star overhead. I am more optimistic about Ukraine insofar as I believe that the cessation of U.S. military aid isn’t nearly as catastrophic as it could have been. Two years ago, Trump’s actions would have been cataclysmic. Today, half of Ukraine’s defence requirements are met from domestic sources. Another large percentage is provided by Europe, Canada, and other allies. These numbers will certainly increase, although we can anticipate a rough period as Ukraine adjusts to Washington’s sudden switching of sides.

The danger is that Trump will provide material and financial assistance to Russia, which would completely alter the picture. For now, Russia’s economy is bordering on collapse, and what I call the “burn rate” for Russian armour and advanced military equipment means that most stocks will be exhausted by the end of 2025. Should the U.S. or China alter this picture by selling or donating military aid, Ukraine and the West will be hard-pressed to keep up, even with a crash program to expand our defence industrial base.

For months, I’ve been calling for decisive action to improve our defence capabilities and disentangle Canada from the U.S. It seems—finally—our leadership has realized this too. We may reach a point where the West makes a clear break with Trump and his regime in Washington, but we’re not there yet. Europe (along with Canada and the UK) will try almost anything to prevent such a break. I just hope it doesn’t come at the cost of our sovereignty and honour.

As for me, I clearly need to watch more cat videos and get my blood pressure down.

Elbows up!

1. “Was the Queen Sending Coded Messages to Donald Trump via her Brooches? Absolutely” The Guardian, 18 July 2018